Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up on Monday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are currently 7.5-point favorites at BetMGM and the betting action is extremely lopsided as we approach kickoff. Which side are bettors rolling with on Monday night?
Nearly all of the money is on Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 7-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. Currently, that line is up to 7.5-points at BetMGM. The reason for the line move? It probably has a lot to do with how one-sided the betting action is ahead of kickoff.
Currently at BetMGM, 86% of bets and 85% of the money is backing the Kansas City Chiefs to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. It’s one of the largest splits in betting action that we’ve seen in a game this season.
There’s been a lot of trash talk between these teams in recent years. The Raiders huddled on the Chiefs logo pre-game last season, and then went on to lose the game by a score of 48-9. This logo display came a year after a reported 2020 situation between the two teams. The Raiders secured a rare win at Arrowhead, and Jon Gruden, who then coached the Raiders, reportedly ordered the bus driver to take a victory lap around the stadium before departing for the airport.
Overall, this rivalry has been rather lopsided. Andy Reid is 15-3 against the Raiders as coach of the Chiefs, outscoring them by 260 points in the process. Derek Carr is just 1-7 all-time at Arrowhead. Last season, in two meetings between the teams, the Chiefs outscored Las Vegas by a combined score of 89-23.
Recent history suggests the Chiefs are a good bet against the Raiders. Bettors certainly hope that history keeps repeating itself on Monday night.
Bettors also expect points
Currently at BetMGM, the total for Chiefs-Raiders is set at 51.5-points. It’s the highest total of the week, which is no surprise as games featuring the Chiefs usually are. Despite unders going 9-6 this week and continuing their trend of dominating the early part of the season, bettors like the over on Monday night.
Currently at BetMGM, 67% of bets and 68% of the money is on this game to go over 51.5-points. Despite that, the total is down a point from the opening number of 52.5-points.
Over the last two seasons, these teams have played four games. In 2020, the games featured 72 and 66 points with both teams carrying their weight and scoring at least 30 points in each game. Last season, the games featured 55 and 57 points. However, Las Vegas scored just 23 of those 112 points.
With a total this high, in an ideal world, you’d want both sides to carry their weight. There’s little doubt that Kansas City will do their part. Las Vegas has shown they can put up points on the Chiefs in the past, but they didn’t do it last season.
Kelce and Mahomes are popular props
With bettors all over the Chiefs and the over on Monday night, it’s no surprise that they’re also loading up on props involving the Kansas City offense.
The two most popular prop bets at BetMGM ahead of kickoff both feature Travis Kelce. Kelce is +500 to score the first touchdown of the game and -175 to score at anytime in the game. As Yahoo Sportsbook’s Greg Brainos pointed out, Kelce has done well against the Raiders in recent seasons from a yardage perspective.
On the season, Kelce has touchdowns in three of four games. Kelce did not score a touchdown against the Raiders last season, but did score in both games against them in 2020.
The thid most popular prop is Patrick Mahomes to throw over 2.5 touchdown passes at +140. Mahomes had a five touchdown game against the Raiders last season. He’s gone over this number in two of four games this season.