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Australia’s southern states could experience blackouts this winter, with a new report from Australia’s Energy Market Operator (AEMO) highlighting the “continued risks” of “gas supply shortfalls”.
The AEMO report found that while overall gas production was expected to be “adequate” up until 2027, there could be shortfalls during periods of high demand – such as during extreme weather conditions.
“While there is sufficient gas supply overall to meet demand, there is a risk of peak day shortfalls,” AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman told reporters.
“Those shortfalls might exist when there is ultra-high demand on both gas for power system and gas for heating.”
The report found that gas supply problems are only expected to get worse beyond 2027, with reduced supply from Victoria being a key part of the problem.
“The Core finding of this report is that gas supply is declining at a faster rate than demand,” Mr Westerman said.
“That’s why we’re calling for investment in new sources of supply to overcome those annual shortfalls from 2027 onwards.”
These new sources of supply could come in the form of traditional natural gas extraction, new LNG terminals, or from alternative fuels like hydrogen when they become available.
According to AEMO, Victoria’s gas production is forecast to decline by 16 per cent this year, before falling by almost half by 2027.
Despite this, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has refused to authorise new exploration, instead calling on the federal government to wind back exports from Queensland’s three major gas giants.
“We’re not going to smash up our pristine environment, or our wine country or our dairy country,” Premier Andrews said.
“Our gas that comes out of our seabed and our ground should be for our businesses and our households first. What we don’t need, sell that to the world.”
The Premier’s view is at odds with some on his own side of politics, with National Secretary of the Australian Workers Union, Dan Walton, telling Englishheadline Australia’s Andrew Clennell that new gas fields needed to be developed.
“What we’ve seen today through AEMO is another report highlighting the fact that we need gas long into the future, not only will we need gas for our domestic purposes but there’s a good opportunity to sell gas to the globe,” Mr Walton said.
“We need to make sure that we continue to develop new fields, sign off new leases, and to make sure that we can get gas to domestic users and to supply the world.”
