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Saturday, September 18, 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa Forms Over Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Elsa, the fifth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Thursday and was projected to deliver dangerous rains and winds to several Caribbean islands.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning, which indicates tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, for St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday morning, joining Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. Guadeloupe was under a tropical storm watch, which indicates the conditions are possible within 36 hours.

The center warned that many other islands in the region, including the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should monitor the storm.

“Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today,” the center said on Thursday morning.

The center of the storm was hundreds of miles from the islands on Thursday morning but moving west at about 25 miles per hour. It was projected to pass near or over parts of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday and move near Hispaniola on Saturday, bringing a maximum of eight inches of rain and the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides.

The center said it was too soon to determine what effect the storm might have on Florida, where a desperate search continues for survivors of the collapsed condo building near Miami.

Ana became the first named storm of the season on May 23, making this the seventh year in a row that a named storm developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season on June 1.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to experience stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms may drop, because factors like stronger wind shear might keep weaker storms from forming.

Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested that storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

Researchers have suggested that climate change is also causing some storms to intensify more rapidly, which, as a recent study in the journal Nature Communications put it, “can lead to disastrous scenarios when coastal areas are not given adequate notice to evacuate and prepare for an extremely intense” storm.

Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, six to 10 of which would be hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic.

Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, causing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and move to using Greek letters.

It was the highest number of storms on record, surpassing the 28 storms in 2005, and included the second-highest number of hurricanes on record.

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